If you feel like you are losing your mind every time you walk through the grocery store sliding doors, you are not alone.
Some headlines say inflation is cooling. Is that accurate? We’re experiencing a disconnect. And while national averages smooth out what families feel most, the items we buy on autopilot every week tell a different story.
Here’s what I found (and how you can do the same with your old receipts).
The receipt reality check: 2025 vs 2026
To keep this clean, I ignored the full-cart chaos and tracked three morning routine staples: coffee creamer, milk, and eggs. Same store, same sizes, same brands. Prices shown are shelf prices before tax.
Here is what changed in 354 days.
| Morning staple | Jan 2025 price | Jan 2026 price | The damage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intl. Delight Creamer 32oz | $3.99 | $4.99 | +25.1% |
| Kemps 1% Milk Gallon | $3.99 | $4.79 | +20.1% |
| Dutch Farms Cage Free Eggs | $5.99 | $6.49 | +8.4% |
| Breakfast total | $13.97 | $16.27 | +16.5% increase |
The hidden inflation problem when a sale is not a sale
The numbers above explain why so many shoppers still feel squeezed. It is not only higher prices. It is the way the baseline resets.
Look at the eggs. In January 2025, the regular, non-sale price for a dozen Dutch Farms Cage Free eggs was $5.99. In January 2026, the shelf tag can frame $6.49 as a deal. That is the psychological gut punch: a sale price that would have looked expensive a year ago.
And once the baseline moves, your mental math breaks. You stop trusting promos, you start budgeting like the floor might rise again. At least that’s how it works for me.
Frequency matters more than headlines
Yes, you can find pockets of relief. A few meat items might be cheaper, and some pantry staples swing around depending on supply and promotions. But you do not buy a ham steak every day. You do buy eggs, milk, and coffee add-ins constantly.
When a daily habit rises by about 16 percent in under a year, it drains your wallet faster than a once-a-month splurge. The quiet tax is the repeat purchase.
If you want to run the same audit on your household, do it like a tiny personal CPI. Pick 10 items you buy every week, record the price once a month, and watch what actually moves. If you want a head start, a grocery list spreadsheet is a good way to start. If you want to do this kind of experiment yourself, modify the sheet to track prices month by month.
And if you want to duplicate what I did, check your app. My grocery store lets me view old receipts. I can pull up exactly what I ordered last year and see how much I spent on specific products. If yours does the same, you can build out a much more comprehensive spreadsheet to track your own grocery inflation rate.
And if you’re a data nerd like me, you can even use a recipe cost spreadsheet template to track the price of your most common recipes. As always, tracking the data helps us find the truth behind the news story.
