The Masters returns to Augusta this week, and we’re analyzing some of the data behind this legendary golf tournament. Today is only the start. And we wanted to know just how important the first round is for the golfers who ended up winning during previous years.
There are a few interesting takeaways. The first? Only five champions held the sole first position after the 18th, 36th, and 54th holes. And to be clear, we mean people who didn’t tie at any of these moments. Horton Smith, the first winner, was tied after the 18th hole, then took sole lead for the other two critical moments. He’s not included in the five solo leaders we’re talking about here.
The first standalone leader happened in 1941 when Craig Wood maintained first position at all three critical moments. Byron Nelson came close in 1937. He held the first position alone after the 18th and 36th holes, but fell into a tie for third after the 54th before coming back to win the whole thing.
The other champions who accomplished this didn’t happen for another two decades. Arnold Palmer earned this distinction in 1960, then two champions followed in the 1970s. Jack Nicklaus and Raymond Floyd both maintained their leads throughout the event, defending solo first positions along the way.
The last person to maintain first position, without being tied, didn’t come along until nearly 40 years later. That was Jordan Spieth back in 2015. And we haven’t seen another stand-alone golfer since.
This Year’s Masters Tournament
So what does that tell us about this year’s Masters tournament?
For one, it shows just how rare dominance is across all four rounds. Augusta doesn’t often reward wire-to-wire victories. Most winners fight through a rough stretch or make up ground late in the tournament. That unpredictability is part of the tournament’s mystique, and part of what makes Sunday at Augusta so electric.
If a player surges to an early lead on Thursday, the numbers suggest we should be cautious before calling them the favorite.
The data also highlights how few champions stay in control from the very start. In fact, only about one in ten winners were in first place after Round 1. The real turning point, historically, is Saturday, also known as moving day. Nearly half of all Masters winners were leading after 54 holes.
That tells us the leaderboard on Saturday night is often a better predictor of Sunday’s champion than anything we see in the opening rounds.
Heading into this week, fans should keep their eyes on those middle rounds. A player just a few strokes back after Thursday or Friday is far from out of contention. If history is any guide, the eventual winner is more likely to be lurking in the top five than standing alone on top early on.
And if someone does lead every round? Well, pay attention. It’s happened just five times. But when it does, you’re witnessing something historic.
We used conditional formatting in Google Sheets to quickly find this data. Have you spotted any interesting trends? Let us know!
